Assessment of climate change impact on river flow regimes in The Red River Delta, Vietnam – A case study of the Nhue-Day River Basin

Abstract

Global warming has caused dramatic changes in regional climate variability, particularly regarding fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. Thus, it is predicted that river flow regimes will be altered accordingly. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of modeling such changes by simulating discharge using the HEC-HMS model. The precipitation was projected using super-high resolution multiple climate models (20 km resolution) with newly updated emission scenarios as the input for the HEC-HMS model for flow analysis at the Red River Basin in the northern area of Vietnam. The findings showed that climate change impact on the river flow regimes tend towards a decrease in the dry season and a longer duration of flood flow. A slight runoff reduction is simulated for November while a considerable runoff increase is modeled for July and August amounting to 30% and 25%, respectively. The discharge scenarios serve as a basis for water managers to develop suitable adaptation methods and responses on the river basin scale.